Shelley, Idaho 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

357
FXUS65 KPIH 222312
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
412 PM MST Sun Feb 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer temperatures peak tomorrow afternoon

- Rain, snow, and wind Tuesday and Wednesday

- Above average temperatures throughout the week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1225 PM MST Sun Feb 22 2026

Dry weather persists through tomorrow morning across eastern
Idaho. Even with the approaching storm and some increase in
higher clouds, we should see highs peaking tomorrow...at least
for the early part of the week. Highs in most lower valleys hit
45-55 tomorrow. By afternoon a few pockets of light rain and
snow cross the Salmon River into the central mountain. Tomorrow
night through Wednesday afternoon looks wet for a good chunk of
central and eastern Idaho, with windy conditions developing
tomorrow night and Wednesday. This storm, like most of our
storms this winter, will be on the warm side and focus, on the
Sawtooths/surrounding ranges, eastern highlands and Bear River
Range. While we may see some lighter snow accumulations between
6000-6500ft for that 48 hour period, most of the accumulation
will occur above 7500ft and highest amounts above pass level.
Where we are expecting all or mostly rain, upslope/downslope
impacts are expected. We have 0.10" or less for some of the
central mountain valleys and the upper end of the Snake Plain.
From Blackfoot south and west across the Snake Plain and Magic
Valley, we have anywhere from 0.15" to almost 0.50" (highest
across the Magic Valley). Similar amounts for the valleys south
of I-84 and I-86 are possible. There is a 10-20% chance of more
than 0.50" across those areas down low. The Wood For valleys
where some snow (3" or less) is expected (Island Park, Teton
Valley, Wood River Valley, and Stanley Basin), we are looking
for 0.40-0.80", with a 10-40% chance of exceeding 0.80". For
higher elevations in favored areas, we are looking 0.50-1.20" of
moisture (snow melted to water measurements). There is a 20-50%
chance of more than that across the Big Holes and around
Lionhead (including the Tetons), spine of the Sawtooths, and the
Bear River Range. Looking at snowfall totals, snowfall under
7500ft is limited to 6" or less over 2 days. Snowfall in the
mountains OUTSIDE of favored locations at/above 7500ft, is
generally 6" or less as well. For the Bear River Range, we are
currently looking at 6-10", 8-16" for the Big Holes and around
Lionhead, and 8-18" for the Sawtooths/surrounding ranges. Some
spots may try and push 2ft. The other factor with this event
will be wind, especially later Tuesday into Wednesday. Strongest
gusts in most areas will be 30-50mph, with a few spots
surpassing that. The winds right now are the driving factor for
potential headlines since snowfall is for 48 hours. We will hold
off on any headlines for the moment until we see if trends are
up or down in the next 24 hours.

Beyond that, the forecast is mostly trending drier. We do have
another system clipping the area on Friday, which will produce
more showers. The Blend of Models is showing some uncertainty
in terms of how wet or dry it might, but the overall trend is
drier. Friday looks like another windy, and we might actually
remain breezy through next weekend. Temperatures do dip a bit
with the incoming low, but still running above average. A
warming trend returns for the last half of the upcoming week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 412 PM MST Sun Feb 22 2026

VFR conditions continue at all TAF sites this evening and through
tonight. Winds remain below 15kts at all sites, too. Things begin to
change on Monday as cloud cover increases from northwest to
southeast through the day as our next system moves into Eastern
Idaho. Winds will be very similar to today with afternoon gusts
around 15 kts at all sites. Precipitation chances will begin to
increase between 06-12Z Tuesday first at KSUN and then expanding
eastward into Tuesday. So, no precipitation mention with this TAF
issuance, but likely needed at SUN with the 06Z TAFs tonight.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Keyes
AVIATION...AMM